Syria’s debt to Iran is estimated at USD 30 billion. This figure, originating from the Office of the Iranian Presidency, was leaked in August 2023. It represents the price Iran has paid since 2011 to keep Assad in power. The repayment of this massive debt is all the more unlikely given that those now in power in Syria harbor a deep and enduring aversion toward the Islamic Republic for its near-unconditional support of the former dictator.

It should be noted that Iran has still not recovered the USD 1 trillion owed by Iraq for reparations following the bloody war Saddam Hussein launched in 1980, which lasted eight years. Yet, the two nations now enjoy good relations, with bilateral trade steadily increasing over the past decade. Nonetheless, Iran has seen none of its money, while Kuwait, for its part, has successfully recovered the USD 50 billion Iraq owed it for the 1990 invasion. Clearly, Iran pays the price for its lack of international support and networks, advantages from which Kuwait greatly benefits.

Trade and economic relations between Iran and Syria were diverse, encompassing — until Assad’s downfall — sectors such as energy, industrial goods, vehicles, arms, petrochemicals, construction materials, financial investments, and significant cash flows brought into Syria by Iranian pilgrims visiting sacred Shiite sites near Damascus. Over 14 years, Iran exported an average of 60,000 barrels of oil per day to Syria. At USD 50 per barrel, Syria owes USD 1 billion annually, amounting to USD 14 billion since 2011 in this sector alone. For example, an Iranian supertanker carrying 750,000 barrels had to turn back in the Gulf of Suez on December 8 due to attacks by what were still “rebels” at the time.

Now in power, these rebels are unlikely to be inclined to honor the country’s debt. Yet, Iranian authorities were already anxious and uncertain about recovering their funds even under Assad. This is why they multiplied agreements and contracts with him across a wide range of sectors to secure at least some return on their investments. In September 2022, a major contract involving eight projects was signed between the two countries, under which Damascus would pay Tehran USD 18 billion. Iran was supposed to spend USD 1 billion and recover USD 18 billion over a period of 50 years. Another contract granted Iran control of the Syrian port of Tartus for 49 years, automatically renewable for another 49, extending until 2093. On November 13, 2024 — just one month before Assad fled — the Iranian Parliament passed a law establishing the total liberalisation of trade with Syria, in hopes of claiming the lion’s share of the country’s reconstruction.

To this end, Iran not only sent military advisors to Syria but also deployed skilled personnel akin to missi dominici, facilitating trade exchanges and monitoring these bilateral agreements. Some sources estimate that there are currently 10,000 Iranian officials in Syria, whose fate has now become uncertain. This ambiguous situation is further complicated by the fact that these substantial expenditures — most of which relate to civilian projects in Syria — are actually funded from Iran’s military budget under the framework of “advanced security” agreements between the two countries.

Popular discontent, which Iranian authorities have long ignored, was already evident before Assad’s ouster, with many media outlets regularly expressing outrage over these funds being diverted from the country’s economy, which is in dire straits. Today, an increasing number of national and local political leaders are openly questioning this policy, as Syria’s USD 30 billion debt amounts to no less than 10 percent of Iran’s GDP.

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A version of this article was first published on michelsanti.fr

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